This is my final post on Nine Shift – a book that outlines nine major changes in society that will reshape the world as we know it. See earlier post for the list. I promise to move in a totally different direction later this week. Sorry for the overload, but since part of my day job is giving talks on this and related subjects, I have a lot to say on the topic. To recap my earlier posts on the book:
- We’re currently undergoing an enormous number of changes in society due to our move out of the Industrial Age into the Innovation Age, paralleled only by what happened 100 years ago when we moved from an agrarian society to one that centered on factories. Back then, the invention of the automobile changed the world; today it’s the Internet.
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Several trends like working at home are going to result in the demise of corporate America and suburbia as we know it.
Which brings me to my third and final takeaway from the book: Those who are struggling most with the changes are men and Boomers.
The authors convey the message that women do well in times of great change. They point to the last great period of change (1900-1920), and note that women were granted the right to vote in the US in 1920. Other accomplishments from this time period:
- 1916 Jeannette Rankin of
Montana becomes the first American woman elected to the United States Congress. - 1921 Margaret Sanger founds the American Birth Control League, the precursor to the Planned Parenthood Federation of America.
- 1928, women earn 39% of the college degrees, up from 19% in 1900.
Similar changes are happening now that will also directly benefit women, one of the most telling is that women graduate college in greater numbers than men. See recent NYTimes article about young women in certain urban areas outearning men. Moreover, the authors argue that women stand to benefit the most from the work at home trend.
While the authors didn’t survey “whether stay at home moms would take telecommuting, part-time work, if available;� they guessed the answer would be yes. I agree. Anecdotally, I live in a very small “Stepford-like� town (hopefully to be improved by the changes discussed in my last post), but at least half of the “stay at home moms� I know seem to work (catering, tutoring, real estate, consulting, photography, jewelry). I also know four stay at home dads (some work part-time/some don’t), so times they are a-changing.
Ironically, our school systems are still on hours from the Agrarian age where kids had to work in the fields in the afternoon/summer.
Unfortunately, when one group makes strides, it changes things, and those who were comfortable with the way it used to be have more trouble adjusting. In this case, the authors argue it’s the men. They illustrate this by discussing Homer Simpson’s lasting appeal – he is the “everyman.â€? And it’s not just in the U.S. Here’s a global perspective:
What’s the appeal? Homer is, after all, basically stupid and indolent. This is how the daily newspaper ClarÃn in Buenos Aires put it when it sponsored a nationwide “Argentine Homer” contest: “Are you lazy, do you hate your job, are you jealous of your neighbor’s success, are you clumsy, are you funny in spite of yourself, are you forgetful, but most of all, a guy with a big heart? Write us!”
That seems to be it: When push comes to shove, Homer proves himself to be a devoted husband and father.
“Homer resembles so many men,” Mexican columnist Guadalupe Loaeza said. “I see my husband, who, by the way does not miss an episode, and how he resembles Homer Simpson in his insecurities, self criticism, his clumsiness – but all in a loving way.”
Homer is also a character who is not likely to jump on the Innovation bandwagon, yet it’s a character with whom many men seem to identify. However, the book notes that young men are actually leading the Innovation age, so they should have less difficulty transitioning. Yet, I’m starting to wonder if that group also feels threatened, what with the huge amounts of hateful and threatening blog comments against women who voice an opinion online.
Which brings us to the Boomers. Earlier this year, I mentioned in a newsletter that I was reading Boomsday by Christopher Buckley, I received a handful of angry emails from Boomers for recommending the book. This was not surprising as, according to the authors, Boomers are the most vocal about their opposition to telecommuting and other technological changes being brought into the workplace. (Ironically, the last set of angry e-mails I received were from men who were upset that I critcized the premise of the book Why Men Earn More by Warren Farrell.)
But, this is clearly to be expected. Boomers helped create a workaholic culture which depends on hierarchies and facetime. In addition, they are, after all, a generation whose first introduction to the computer was HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey. A bit hard to get over the “computer is a threat to all humans� mindset. In stark contrast, Generation Y embraces the computer as a link to other humans. HUGE difference of opinions.
As for the authors’ prediction that there will be a shift to more dense communities? Also bad for Boomers, as there will be limited interest in taking the McMansions they built off their hands. But I’ll leave that to the Finding Foreclosures blog to discuss.
The Bottom Line: The world is changing and some people are going to benefit, while others will protest the changes and probably go down swinging. The entrepreneurs who are going to benefit are those who, rather than fight the changes, adapt and find solutions to the chaos being created during this time of change.
This entry was posted on Monday, September 3rd, 2007 at 11:45 am and is filed under Nonfiction. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.5 Responses to “The Year 2020, Part III – Good for girls and Gen Y, bad for boys and Boomers”
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September 4th, 2007 at 9:32 am
This will sound defensive yet, as a boomer, most of the boomers I know (like finds like?) love the new social media, crowdsourcing, generosity of younger people to consult and just plain share insights about using technology to be better together than we can apart.
I feel so lucky to be living in this time when I can collaborate with people so much different than me that we can co-create products and programs… meeting, face2face a year or three after we have worked together.
So much seems to be about how we get to bump into people who are a different than us so we get exposed to the new, new things. And I am a long time fan of your writing and your “day job”.
I think we should all have a “double major” of two areas of deep expertise to share – if we want to be smart/valued partners.
I believe that with the right partners and method we can generate more value and visibility – together.
Just must look for the sweet spot of mutual benefit an be able to describe that opportunity in a pithy, credible way to potential partners.
As you are demonstrating, communicate-to-connect is a vital skill in a flattening world.
And I believe that those who flourish in the Age of Engagement have a bit fo talent both as a Maven AND a Connector.
Kudos to you for this helpful blog that is fun to read!
September 4th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Hi Kare! Great to hear from you. Very insightful comments, and yes, when one talks genders and generations, we have to make sweeping generationalizations. And, you are probably right – you are finding your “like-minded” boomers online (who are likely a minor subset).
My goal in writing about the gaps between generations is to make people aware of the trade-offs of skills they could do, or as you put it so well “pairing up” of skills.
I will admit that 80% of our customer service at the Downtown Women’s Club is for “Boomers” who make up about 30% of our members. (one of the tip-offs to us is an “aol” address). But, one of our goals is to help all women (esp. Boomers) venture onto the web for business and we provide a safe place to do so. Yet, I don’t think as “digital immigrants” (gen y = “digital natives”) it’s ever going to be easy for many Boomers (and even Gen X’ers) to feel comfortable with the latest “new new thing” on the web!
Diane
September 10th, 2007 at 7:20 am
It is physically impossible to predict social changes, and now we’re going to do it more than a decade into the future? All the author does is take some changes perceived to have taken place in the recent past, then extrapolate them into the future. All these type books are the same – write provactive but high-school caliber sensationalist crock. Then sell a bunch of books to people who don’t know better. Then take the money and run. These books will all be in the landfill long before 2020 and no one will even remember.
I first realized this when I stumbled onto a bunch of books just like this, in a bookfair – the 10 cent paperback section. What a scam all these type books are. It’s just like magazine articles that make outrageous predictions based on some writer’s understanding of present trends, but hope no one even remembers when they don’t come close.
Even on the surface, there are so many things wrong with Nine Shift, LET ALONE the fact NO ONE has enough understanding to predict what will happen. Why doesn’t anyone get it – making predictions like this are impossible. All Nine Shift does is reveal someone else’s thinking. The whole Simpson thing is garbage. As if everyone on the planet watches the Simpsons. American-centric boy-girl Sex in the City mentality. Good grief.
Let me ask even the reviewer just a few questions about the World today, or even about America. I guarantee she doesn’t know the answer. But I’m supposed to believe she can predict the future, too?
Notice the handful of cherry-picked totally non-related statistics taken from dubious sources. Why not spend a couple hours dredging up trash statistics using Google to establish that women will be forever confined to careers in Health Care and Education? Since after all, here are statistics that show women do poorly in math and science, few have careers in technology and not one in a hundred can explain the difference between AC and DC. Then I can throw in some statistics that show how more and more women are rejecting careers to stay home with the kids.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
As “the reviewer” I do get to pick the books I like to review. I’m a strong proponent that you can learn from the past which is why I appreciated what the authors looked both backward and forward. As to predictions, yes, they are just “predictions,” and like horoscopes, studies and statistics, we can keep reading them to find the one that suits us best. Will they all come true? Do they represent your current situation accurately. Unlikely, but it’s a good starting point for entrepreneurs, like myself, to start thinking about how their business fits into this possible scenario.
Believe me, I wish I could predict the future, and don’t think I made any in my review above (just stated a bit of anecdotal evidence). My goal is simply to mitigate my own risk based on everything I can read whether it’s in a magazine, book, newspaper or blog. And when I read a book or blog that makes me think and will create some positive discussion as it did here, then it’s worth writing about.
Thanks everyone for the great insights!
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I love all the books, comments and predictions for our future..However we know nothing about the future..simply because we are not there yet..There are many trends but they can change with change that happens. It does seem that more people work from home thanks to technology. It does me make me sad to see people in stores glued to their cells, ipods etc..However that is the way of the world..My finest advice..enjoy your life today, feel as good as you can..and remember to give some thanks..carol stanley….carolstanley1.com my book…”For Kids 59.99 and Over”